Super Bowl Coin Toss History, Results & Trends

coin-toss

Let’s get one thing straight off the bat.

We’re not here to recommend you bet on the Super Bowl coin toss. We’ll analyze coin toss-related trends, of course – Kyle loves data. 

But using a bookie to bet on the coin toss, unlike betting on game results, is a strictly -EV move. 

It’s a coin toss. The chances of you being right or wrong are 50/50. We’re telling you right now – there is no edge to be found here. Sportsbooks don’t like 50/50s. They need their juice. 

That means you’ll see -103 odds. That’s not right – a 50/50 contest should have exactly +100 odds. 

Want to bet $20 on the Super Bowl coin toss with your buddy? Go for it. But don’t use sportsbooks to bet on events that are determined by complete random chance.

One thing the coin toss might be useful for is determining who will win the Super Bowl – we’ll take a look at that when we crunch the numbers in a later section. But first: 

The Super Bowl Coin Toss History Chart

Super BowlMatchupHeads or Tails?Toss WinnerGame WinnerDid the Toss Winner Win the Game?
1Kansas City vs Green BayHeadsGreen BayGreen BayYes
2Green Bay vs OaklandTailsOaklandGreen BayNo
3Baltimore vs NY JetsHeadsNYNYYes
4Minnesota vs Kansas CityTailsMinnesotaKansas CityNo
5Baltimore (Colts) vs DallasTailsDallasBaltimoreNo
6Dallas vs MiamiHeadsMiamiDallasNo
7Miami vs WashingtonHeadsMiamiMiamiYes
8Minnesota vs MiamiHeadsMiamiMiamiYes
9Pittsburgh vs MinnesotaTailsPittsburghPittsburghYes
10Dallas vs PittsburghHeadsDallasPittsburghNo
11Oakland vs MinnesotaTailsOaklandOaklandYes
12Dallas vs DenverHeadsDallasDallasYes
13Pittsburgh vs DallasHeadsDallasPittsburghNo
14Los Angeles vs PittsburghHeadsL.A.PittsburghNo
15Oakland vs PhiladelphiaTailsPhiladelphiaOaklandNo
16San Francisco vs CincinnatiTailsSan FranciscoSan FranciscoYes
17Miami vs WashingtonTailsMiamiWashingtonNo
18Washington vs Los Angeles (Raiders)HeadsLos AngelesLos AngelesYes
19Miami vs San FranciscoTailsSan FranciscoSan FranciscoYes
20Chicago vs New EnglandTailsChicagoChicagoYes
21Denver vs NY GiantsTailsNYNYNo
22Washington vs DenverHeadsWashingtonWashingtonYes
23Cincinnati vs San FranciscoTailsSan FranciscoSan FranciscoYes
24San Francisco vs DenverHeadsDenverSan FranciscoNo
25Buffalo vs NY GiantsHeadsBuffaloNYNo
26Washington vs BuffaloHeadsWashingtonWashingtonYes
27Buffalo vs DallasHeadsBuffaloDallasNo
28Buffalo vs DallasTailsDallasDallasYes
29San Diego (Chargers) vs San FranciscoHeadsSan FranciscoSan FranciscoYes
30Dallas vs PittsburghTailsDallasDallasYes
31New England vs Green BayHeadsNew EnglandGreen BayNo
32Green Bay vs DenverTailsGreen BayDenverNo
33Denver vs AtlantaTailsAtlantaDenverNo
34St. Louis vs TennesseeTailsSt. LouisSt. LouisYes
35Baltimore vs NY GiantsTailsNYBaltimore No
36St. Louis vs New EnglandHeadsSt. LouisNew EnglandNo
37Oakland vs Tampa BayTailsTampa BayTampa BayYes
38New England vs CarolinaTailsCarolinaNew EnglandNo
39New England vs PhiladelphiaTailsPhiladelphiaNew EnglandNo
40Seattle vs PittsburghTailsSeattlePittsburghNo
41Indianapolis vs ChicagoHeadsChicagoIndianapolisNo
42NY Giants vs New EnglandTailsNYNYYes
43Pittsburgh vs ArizonaHeadsArizonaPittsburghNo
44New Orleans vs IndianapolisHeadsNew OrleansNew OrleansYes
45Pittsburgh vs Green BayHeadsGreen BayGreen BayYes
46NY Giants vs New EnglandHeadsNew EnglandNYNo
47Baltimore vs San FranciscoHeadsBaltimoreBaltimoreYes
48Seattle vs DenverTailsSeattleSeattleYes
49New England vs SeattleTailsSeattleNew EnglandNo
50Carolina vs DenverTailsCarolinaDenverNo
51New England vs AtlantaTailsAtlantaNew EnglandNo
52Philadelphia vs New EnglandHeadsNew EnglandPhiladelphiaNo
53New England vs St. LouisTailsSt. LouisNew EnglandNo
54San Francisco vs Kansas CityTailsSan FranciscoKansas CityNo
55Kansas City vs Tampa BayHeadsKansas CityTampa BayNo

Crunching the numbers

Let’s start by taking a look at how often the coin came up heads, and how often it came up tails. 

Heads: 26 times (47.272%)

Tails: 29 times (52.727%)

Those numbers, of course, tell us next to nothing. The odds are 50/50, and we see that the distribution is close to 50/50 – as we continue to enjoy Super Bowls, the actual percentages will draw closer and closer to 50% for heads and tails.

Now let’s look at some more important numbers: how often did the coin flip winner win the Super Bowl? 

Coin flip winner won the Super Bowl: 24 (43.636%)

Coin flip loser won the Super Bowl: 31  (56.363%)

What do we learn from these numbers? Once again, basically nothing. It seems like the loser of the coin flip tends to win the Super Bowl more often, but the numbers are so marginal – and counterintuitive – that we wouldn’t recommend considering them too highly in your overall evaluation of who is going to win.

We wanted to provide this resource because the more information you have, the better – but there are some pieces of data that aren’t nearly as important as others. Relying on bad data can make your conclusions much less accurate than if you’d simply not used that data in your calculations.
If you’re looking for NFL picks that were made with swaths of much more reliable data, check out Kyle’s picks. And keep reading our resources to learn all you can about sports betting.

error: Content is protected !!