Super Bowl Coin Toss History, Results & Trends

Let’s get one thing straight off the bat.

We’re not here to recommend you bet on the Super Bowl coin toss. We’ll analyze coin toss-related trends, of course – Kyle loves data. 

But using a bookie to bet on the coin toss, unlike betting on game results, is a strictly -EV move. 

It’s a coin toss. The chances of you being right or wrong are 50/50. We’re telling you right now – there is no edge to be found here. Sportsbooks don’t like 50/50s. They need their juice. 

That means you’ll see -103 odds. That’s not right – a 50/50 contest should have exactly +100 odds. 

Want to bet $20 on the Super Bowl coin toss with your buddy? Go for it. But don’t use sportsbooks to bet on events that are determined by complete random chance.

One thing the coin toss might be useful for is determining who will win the Super Bowl – we’ll take a look at that when we crunch the numbers in a later section. But first: 

The Super Bowl Coin Toss History Chart

Super Bowl	Matchup	Heads or Tails?	Toss Winner	Game Winner	Did the Toss Winner Win the Game?
1	Kansas City vs Green Bay	Heads	Green Bay	Green Bay	Yes
2	Green Bay vs Oakland	Tails	Oakland	Green Bay	No
3	Baltimore vs NY Jets	Heads	NY	NY	Yes
4	Minnesota vs Kansas City	Tails	Minnesota	Kansas City	No
5	Baltimore (Colts) vs Dallas	Tails	Dallas	Baltimore	No
6	Dallas vs Miami	Heads	Miami	Dallas	No
7	Miami vs Washington	Heads	Miami	Miami	Yes
8	Minnesota vs Miami	Heads	Miami	Miami	Yes
9	Pittsburgh vs Minnesota	Tails	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Yes
10	Dallas vs Pittsburgh	Heads	Dallas	Pittsburgh	No
11	Oakland vs Minnesota	Tails	Oakland	Oakland	Yes
12	Dallas vs Denver	Heads	Dallas	Dallas	Yes
13	Pittsburgh vs Dallas	Heads	Dallas	Pittsburgh	No
14	Los Angeles vs Pittsburgh	Heads	L.A.	Pittsburgh	No
15	Oakland vs Philadelphia	Tails	Philadelphia	Oakland	No
16	San Francisco vs Cincinnati	Tails	San Francisco	San Francisco	Yes
17	Miami vs Washington	Tails	Miami	Washington	No
18	Washington vs Los Angeles (Raiders)	Heads	Los Angeles	Los Angeles	Yes
19	Miami vs San Francisco	Tails	San Francisco	San Francisco	Yes
20	Chicago vs New England	Tails	Chicago	Chicago	Yes
21	Denver vs NY Giants	Tails	NY	NY	No
22	Washington vs Denver	Heads	Washington	Washington	Yes
23	Cincinnati vs San Francisco	Tails	San Francisco	San Francisco	Yes
24	San Francisco vs Denver	Heads	Denver	San Francisco	No
25	Buffalo vs NY Giants	Heads	Buffalo	NY	No
26	Washington vs Buffalo	Heads	Washington	Washington	Yes
27	Buffalo vs Dallas	Heads	Buffalo	Dallas	No
28	Buffalo vs Dallas	Tails	Dallas	Dallas	Yes
29	San Diego (Chargers) vs San Francisco	Heads	San Francisco	San Francisco	Yes
30	Dallas vs Pittsburgh	Tails	Dallas	Dallas	Yes
31	New England vs Green Bay	Heads	New England	Green Bay	No
32	Green Bay vs Denver	Tails	Green Bay	Denver	No
33	Denver vs Atlanta	Tails	Atlanta	Denver	No
34	St. Louis vs Tennessee	Tails	St. Louis	St. Louis	Yes
35	Baltimore vs NY Giants	Tails	NY	Baltimore	No
36	St. Louis vs New England	Heads	St. Louis	New England	No
37	Oakland vs Tampa Bay	Tails	Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay	Yes
38	New England vs Carolina	Tails	Carolina	New England	No
39	New England vs Philadelphia	Tails	Philadelphia	New England	No
40	Seattle vs Pittsburgh	Tails	Seattle	Pittsburgh	No
41	Indianapolis vs Chicago	Heads	Chicago	Indianapolis	No
42	NY Giants vs New England	Tails	NY	NY	Yes
43	Pittsburgh vs Arizona	Heads	Arizona	Pittsburgh	No
44	New Orleans vs Indianapolis	Heads	New Orleans	New Orleans	Yes
45	Pittsburgh vs Green Bay	Heads	Green Bay	Green Bay	Yes
46	NY Giants vs New England	Heads	New England	NY	No
47	Baltimore vs San Francisco	Heads	Baltimore	Baltimore	Yes
48	Seattle vs Denver	Tails	Seattle	Seattle	Yes
49	New England vs Seattle	Tails	Seattle	New England	No
50	Carolina vs Denver	Tails	Carolina	Denver	No
51	New England vs Atlanta	Tails	Atlanta	New England	No
52	Philadelphia vs New England	Heads	New England	Philadelphia	No
53	New England vs St. Louis	Tails	St. Louis	New England	No
54	San Francisco vs Kansas City	Tails	San Francisco	Kansas City	No
55	Kansas City vs Tampa Bay	Heads	Kansas City	Tampa Bay	No

Crunching the numbers

Let’s start by taking a look at how often the coin came up heads, and how often it came up tails. 

Heads: 26 times (47.272%)

Tails: 29 times (52.727%)

Those numbers, of course, tell us next to nothing. The odds are 50/50, and we see that the distribution is close to 50/50 – as we continue to enjoy Super Bowls, the actual percentages will draw closer and closer to 50% for heads and tails.

Now let’s look at some more important numbers: how often did the coin flip winner win the Super Bowl? 

Coin flip winner won the Super Bowl: 24 (43.636%)

Coin flip loser won the Super Bowl: 31  (56.363%)

What do we learn from these numbers? Once again, basically nothing. It seems like the loser of the coin flip tends to win the Super Bowl more often, but the numbers are so marginal – and counterintuitive – that we wouldn’t recommend considering them too highly in your overall evaluation of who is going to win.

We wanted to provide this resource because the more information you have, the better – but there are some pieces of data that aren’t nearly as important as others. Relying on bad data can make your conclusions much less accurate than if you’d simply not used that data in your calculations.
If you’re looking for NFL picks that were made with swaths of much more reliable data, check out Kyle’s picks. And keep reading our resources to learn all you can about sports betting.