Let’s get one thing straight off the bat.
We’re not here to recommend you bet on the Super Bowl coin toss. We’ll analyze coin toss-related trends, of course – Kyle loves data.
But using a bookie to bet on the coin toss, unlike betting on game results, is a strictly -EV move.
It’s a coin toss. The chances of you being right or wrong are 50/50. We’re telling you right now – there is no edge to be found here. Sportsbooks don’t like 50/50s. They need their juice.
That means you’ll see -103 odds. That’s not right – a 50/50 contest should have exactly +100 odds.
Want to bet $20 on the Super Bowl coin toss with your buddy? Go for it. But don’t use sportsbooks to bet on events that are determined by complete random chance.
One thing the coin toss might be useful for is determining who will win the Super Bowl – we’ll take a look at that when we crunch the numbers in a later section. But first:
The Super Bowl Coin Toss History Chart
|Super Bowl||Matchup||Heads or Tails?||Toss Winner||Game Winner||Did the Toss Winner Win the Game?|
|1||Kansas City vs Green Bay||Heads||Green Bay||Green Bay||Yes|
|2||Green Bay vs Oakland||Tails||Oakland||Green Bay||No|
|3||Baltimore vs NY Jets||Heads||NY||NY||Yes|
|4||Minnesota vs Kansas City||Tails||Minnesota||Kansas City||No|
|5||Baltimore (Colts) vs Dallas||Tails||Dallas||Baltimore||No|
|6||Dallas vs Miami||Heads||Miami||Dallas||No|
|7||Miami vs Washington||Heads||Miami||Miami||Yes|
|8||Minnesota vs Miami||Heads||Miami||Miami||Yes|
|9||Pittsburgh vs Minnesota||Tails||Pittsburgh||Pittsburgh||Yes|
|10||Dallas vs Pittsburgh||Heads||Dallas||Pittsburgh||No|
|11||Oakland vs Minnesota||Tails||Oakland||Oakland||Yes|
|12||Dallas vs Denver||Heads||Dallas||Dallas||Yes|
|13||Pittsburgh vs Dallas||Heads||Dallas||Pittsburgh||No|
|14||Los Angeles vs Pittsburgh||Heads||L.A.||Pittsburgh||No|
|15||Oakland vs Philadelphia||Tails||Philadelphia||Oakland||No|
|16||San Francisco vs Cincinnati||Tails||San Francisco||San Francisco||Yes|
|17||Miami vs Washington||Tails||Miami||Washington||No|
|18||Washington vs Los Angeles (Raiders)||Heads||Los Angeles||Los Angeles||Yes|
|19||Miami vs San Francisco||Tails||San Francisco||San Francisco||Yes|
|20||Chicago vs New England||Tails||Chicago||Chicago||Yes|
|21||Denver vs NY Giants||Tails||NY||NY||No|
|22||Washington vs Denver||Heads||Washington||Washington||Yes|
|23||Cincinnati vs San Francisco||Tails||San Francisco||San Francisco||Yes|
|24||San Francisco vs Denver||Heads||Denver||San Francisco||No|
|25||Buffalo vs NY Giants||Heads||Buffalo||NY||No|
|26||Washington vs Buffalo||Heads||Washington||Washington||Yes|
|27||Buffalo vs Dallas||Heads||Buffalo||Dallas||No|
|28||Buffalo vs Dallas||Tails||Dallas||Dallas||Yes|
|29||San Diego (Chargers) vs San Francisco||Heads||San Francisco||San Francisco||Yes|
|30||Dallas vs Pittsburgh||Tails||Dallas||Dallas||Yes|
|31||New England vs Green Bay||Heads||New England||Green Bay||No|
|32||Green Bay vs Denver||Tails||Green Bay||Denver||No|
|33||Denver vs Atlanta||Tails||Atlanta||Denver||No|
|34||St. Louis vs Tennessee||Tails||St. Louis||St. Louis||Yes|
|35||Baltimore vs NY Giants||Tails||NY||Baltimore||No|
|36||St. Louis vs New England||Heads||St. Louis||New England||No|
|37||Oakland vs Tampa Bay||Tails||Tampa Bay||Tampa Bay||Yes|
|38||New England vs Carolina||Tails||Carolina||New England||No|
|39||New England vs Philadelphia||Tails||Philadelphia||New England||No|
|40||Seattle vs Pittsburgh||Tails||Seattle||Pittsburgh||No|
|41||Indianapolis vs Chicago||Heads||Chicago||Indianapolis||No|
|42||NY Giants vs New England||Tails||NY||NY||Yes|
|43||Pittsburgh vs Arizona||Heads||Arizona||Pittsburgh||No|
|44||New Orleans vs Indianapolis||Heads||New Orleans||New Orleans||Yes|
|45||Pittsburgh vs Green Bay||Heads||Green Bay||Green Bay||Yes|
|46||NY Giants vs New England||Heads||New England||NY||No|
|47||Baltimore vs San Francisco||Heads||Baltimore||Baltimore||Yes|
|48||Seattle vs Denver||Tails||Seattle||Seattle||Yes|
|49||New England vs Seattle||Tails||Seattle||New England||No|
|50||Carolina vs Denver||Tails||Carolina||Denver||No|
|51||New England vs Atlanta||Tails||Atlanta||New England||No|
|52||Philadelphia vs New England||Heads||New England||Philadelphia||No|
|53||New England vs St. Louis||Tails||St. Louis||New England||No|
|54||San Francisco vs Kansas City||Tails||San Francisco||Kansas City||No|
|55||Kansas City vs Tampa Bay||Heads||Kansas City||Tampa Bay||No|
Crunching the numbers
Let’s start by taking a look at how often the coin came up heads, and how often it came up tails.
Heads: 26 times (47.272%)
Tails: 29 times (52.727%)
Those numbers, of course, tell us next to nothing. The odds are 50/50, and we see that the distribution is close to 50/50 – as we continue to enjoy Super Bowls, the actual percentages will draw closer and closer to 50% for heads and tails.
Now let’s look at some more important numbers: how often did the coin flip winner win the Super Bowl?
Coin flip winner won the Super Bowl: 24 (43.636%)
Coin flip loser won the Super Bowl: 31 (56.363%)
What do we learn from these numbers? Once again, basically nothing. It seems like the loser of the coin flip tends to win the Super Bowl more often, but the numbers are so marginal – and counterintuitive – that we wouldn’t recommend considering them too highly in your overall evaluation of who is going to win.
We wanted to provide this resource because the more information you have, the better – but there are some pieces of data that aren’t nearly as important as others. Relying on bad data can make your conclusions much less accurate than if you’d simply not used that data in your calculations.
If you’re looking for NFL picks that were made with swaths of much more reliable data, check out Kyle’s picks. And keep reading our resources to learn all you can about sports betting.